Today at 11am (Australian EST) we saw the culmination of a carefully calculated, premeditated and ultimately successful PR exercise come to fruition. Lebron James milked the announcement of his highly anticipated move from Cleveland to Miami for all it was worth, and then some more!
As a marketer I’m tempted to analyze the ins and outs of this publicity fest that will send his already unprecedented endorsement deals to a level that many of us never dreamed possible… but I’m a basketball fan first and foremost, so I’d rather explore what this means for the league I follow so closely.
Will Miami win a championship with James, Wade and Bosh?
Simply put, yes.
Will Miami win the Championship in this upcoming 2010-2011 season?
My answer is no.
I’ve thought about this for the past 10 hours since ‘The King’ made his announcement, and once all the hype is put to one side, we are left with some facts that cannot be ignored.
- They’re unproven. If basketball was a sport in which results were decided by the combined individual brilliance of a team’s best players, then yeah pencil them in for the next 7 or so rings… but it’s not. Success or failure is realised on the back of the ability of 10 players to work together with greater fluency and effectiveness than the other team’s 10 players. Statistics tell us that when a team makes such significant changes to the top end of their roster, success just doesn’t happen immediately.
- The Lakers are a very well balanced, proven team, with an exceptional leader and a coach that makes 3-peat championships look easy. How can we forget these guys so quickly! They are young, talented, motivated, experienced and very well positioned for a long-term dynasty of their own.
- The great unknown of this team is the rest of the roster. Unless they can attract some quality young talent willing to play for peanuts – a measly few million dollars worth of peanuts – then the efforts of the three superstars will go unrewarded. The Bulls had their superstars, but they wouldn’t have won their rings without a John Paxson/Steve Kerr/BJ Armstrong… Horace Grant/Dennis Rodman/Toni Kuko?… Cartwright/Longley.
I believe that Miami will be be able to attract some great raw talent to fill the roster and possibly even one or two former stars looking to end their careers with a ring or two. They’ll refine their game-style and develop a disciplined winning culture over the course of the next twelve months and then in the 2011-2012 we’ll see the beginning of one of the great dynasties.
But then again, what do I know… After his strong debut in 2004, I said Andrew Walker would have two Brownlow Medals by this time!
